With most New York polls crediting Donald Trump with a substantial lead in that state’s Republican Primary, it’s not much of a stretch to predict The Donald will take the state. Wilson isn’t stopping there, though. He’s calling the rest of April for Trump, and all of May for his GOP rivals.
“The rest of this month is all New England states and that plays to Trump’s advantage,” Wilson says. “May is a lot of Midwest and Great Plains states, and Ted Cruz has done very well in those parts of the country. That sets up a big battle in California on June 7.”
As Trump is rocking April and predicted to survive May, Wilson expects the shadow battle for delegate loyalty to continue. He doesn’t give much credence to Trump’s claims of fighting a rigged system, pointing to the recent fracas in Colorado as an example.
“The Colorado system is not rigged because it was put in place before anyone thought Trump would be a contender,” Wilson says. “Colorado didn’t do this to shackle trump, Colorado did this to save money and have a low-key process because they thought by this point in the game nothing would be uncertain about the future Republican nominee.
“Not knowing the rules is not the same as the rules being unfair,” Wilson adds. “It’s pretty clear Trump did not invest a lot of time in learning how the rules work in these various states.”
As for the Democratic race, Wilson says even a New York win can’t help Bernie Sanders win a nomination outright. Such an outcome could only give Sanders a prayer at producing a contested convention, where the chips would be stacked against him.
“Sanders has very few connections in the Democratic party. He’s been a fringe player – an independent from Vermont – for years,” Wilson says. “If Hillary Clinton starts to vocally remind people she’s the one who’s actually been a Democrat a long time, lots of folks at the convention will owe her something one way or another, so Sanders convincing them to jump ship will be a tall order.”
“The only way Sanders wins a convention fight is if Hillary is damaged by something as dramatic as an indictment being handed down,” Wilson concludes.
Wilson is an SMU associate professor of political science. He can discuss:
- religion and politics
- political psychology
- voting behavior of religious voters
- public opinion and politics