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Electoral map tilting toward Obama


The following ran in the Sept. 14, 2012, edition of the San Antonio Express-News. Political Scientist Cal Jillson provided expertise for this story.

September 18, 2012

By Richard S. Dunham

WASHINGTON - President Obama's post-convention "bounce" - combined with recent missteps by Republican rival Mitt Romney - has created an electoral map highly favorable to the Democratic president.
National and state polls show small but significant movement toward Obama since the beginning of the Democratic National Convention.
Obama's has jumped out to an average lead of 3.1 percent points in 10 national polls taken since Sept. 4. That's triple the 1.1 percentage-point edge Obama held in polling conducted between Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate and the end of the Republican National Convention....

"It is all-important that Obama is leading by a little, and sometimes more, in most, if not all, of the states both campaigns see as must-win," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. "Things can change between now and election day, but if Obama wins Florida and Ohio - and he is leading narrowly in both now - it is hard to see a path to the White House for Romney."

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