Step 2: Use Historical Caseload Data to Estimate a Projected Caseload

To estimate a projected caseload, you must:

  • Identify Caseload
  • Gather Historical Caseload Data
  • Sort Historical Caseload into NPDWS Case Types
  • Use Historical Caseload to Project Future Caseload

Identify Caseload

To estimate a projected caseload, you must first define the caseload you will be evaluating. Are you looking at the statewide caseload or a county caseload? Are you including conflict cases?

The caseload you select will often depend upon which type of provider’s workload you are evaluating. 

  • Statewide public defense commission: If you are a statewide commission that oversees both full-time public defender offices and a comprehensive conflict program (contract or assigned counsel), you will likely evaluate a caseload that includes all cases assigned to any public defense provider in the state.
  • Statewide public defender: If you are a statewide public defender office, the caseload you evaluate will likely be all cases assigned to your statewide public defender office. You may therefore exclude conflict cases assigned by the courts or to a separately administered conflict program.
  • County public defender office: If you are a county’s primary public defender office, the caseload you evaluate will likely include only cases assigned to your office. Again, you may exclude conflict cases assigned by the courts or through a separately administered conflict program.

 

  Reminder: 

The NPDWS addresses only adult criminal cases. Accordingly, your caseload evaluation should exclude other types of cases, such as juvenile delinquency, dependency, and civil commitment.

Gather Historical Caseload Data

Next, you must gather at least one year of historical caseload data. Generally, this will be the most recent year for which you have complete data. You can use a calendar year, or you might use a fiscal year or budget year to align with the budgeting or appropriations process. 

For each historical caseload year, you must know the number of new cases opened and the highest charge alleged each case. 

Importantly, you must only count a case once.

Counting Cases

The NPDWS defines a case as “all charges filed against a client arising out of a single event or series of events and being prosecuted together.” NPDWS at x; 59. Failing to follow the NPDWS definition of a case, e.g., by counting charges or clients rather than cases, can result in overcounting or undercounting.  

Below are some examples of how to apply the NPDWS definition of a case. 

Example 1: Client A is charged with one count of drug distribution and one count of drug possession. The court assigns each charge a separate case number but handles the charges together. For NPDWS counting purposes, this is counted as a single case.

Example 2: Clients B and C are charged with breaking-and-entering. The court assigns the same case number to both clients. Client B has a public defender and Client C has assigned counsel. For NPDWS counting purposes, these are separate cases. Whether you include both cases in your case count depends upon the caseload you are analyzing. If you are analyzing the public defender office caseload, you should only count Client B’s case. However, if you are analyzing all public defense cases in the state, you should include both cases.

Example 3: Client D is charged with a misdemeanor assault. While on pretrial release, Client D is rearrested and charged with an unrelated DUI offense. Because the two cases arose from separate and unrelated events, you would count each of Client D’s two cases separately.


Remember: you must only count a case once.

In what year do you count a case?

Count each case in the year that it was first assigned to the public defense provider.

  • Count a case in the year it was opened: Cases that are still open at the end of the year should not be counted again in the next year. 

  • Count re-opened cases only once: If a public defense provider closes a case because new counsel takes over, but the case later returns to the original public defense provider, they only count the case once. For example, Client A was initially represented by the public defender but then hired private counsel. Later, Client A ran out of money and was reassigned to the public defender. The public defense provider must count Client A’s case only once (in the year in which it was originally assigned to them).

Sort Historical Caseloads into NPDWS Case Types

Next you will sort your historical caseload using the highest charge or offense for each case. Using the charge map you established in Step 1, you will sort your historical cases into the NPDWS case types. Again, you must sort at least one full year of historical cases. 

As noted above, the NPDWS defines a case as “all charges filed against a client arising out of a single event or series of events and being prosecuted together." NPDWS at 60. When you examine your historical caseloads, a single case will often include several charges. To determine the NPDWS case type, you must identify the highest charge in the case. This is usually the charge carrying the highest potential sentencing exposure. You will then use the charge map (Step 1) to assign the case to the appropriate NPDWS case type. 

Example 1: Client A is charged with drug distribution, drug possession, and being a felon in possession of a handgun. The drug distribution charge carries the greatest potential sentence. It maps to the NPDWS case types as a Felony-Mid case. The other two charges map as NPDWS Felony-Low cases. The drug distribution charge is therefore the highest charge, and you should count the case as one Felony-Mid case.

Example 2: After a deadly car accident, Client B is charged with negligent homicide and DUI. The negligent homicide maps as an NPDWS Felony-High-Other case and the DUI maps as an NPDWS DUI-High case. The negligent homicide is the highest charge, and you should count the case as one Felony-High-Other case.


Defining a Case

Courts and prosecutors often count cases in a manner inconsistent with the NPDWS definition of a case. Understanding how your courts and prosecutors count cases will help you explain any discrepancies between your case counts and theirs. 

  • Some count every charge as a separate case. In that situation, a single NPDWS case might correspond to several cases (and case numbers) in the court’s or prosecutor’s data systems.
  • Others count multi-defendant cases as a single case. For example, they count a case involving two co-defendants as a single case (and case number). However, the NPDWS would count this as two cases – one for each defendant. Depending upon the scope of your analysis, you might include one or both cases in your NPDWS case count. If your analysis is only for the primary provider, you would only include one case. If your analysis includes conflict cases, both cases would appear. 

Use Historical Caseload to Project Future Caseload

The historical caseload data will allow you to project the next year's caseload. This projected caseload must be a reliable estimate of new (incoming) cases by NPDWS case type for the next year.

 Fictional Jurisdiction

To provide clear examples, this website uses data from an imaginary statewide system that we call “Fictional Jurisdiction”. We assume that Fictional Jurisdiction is developing its 2026 budget and wants to estimate its 2026 attorney staffing needs. Our Fictional Jurisdiction examples also assume that the 2026 budgeting process is occurring during 2025 and caseload data for 2025 are not yet available.

To estimate the next year’s caseload, you can simply use the previous year’s caseload. The example below shows the 2024 Fictional Jurisdiction caseload mapped to NPDWS case types. Fictional Jurisdiction could simply use its 2024 caseload as its 2026 Projected Caseload.


Using one year of historical caseload data as the next year’s Projected Caseload is the simplest method of projection. However, it may not be the most accurate projection. For example, if there were an usually high number of homicide cases in 2024, you might not want to rely on that number for your projected number of 2026 Felony-High-Murder cases. 


Other accepted methods of projecting future caseloads can reduce the influence of these types of anomalies. They can also incorporate emerging trends or other information that might inform your projection. These methods include a multi-year average, an adjusted average, and a statistical model. 


Explore Advanced Ways to Estimate a Projected Caseload

 

FAQs about defining a Case (Coming Soon)

FAQs about Sorting Cases into NPDWS Case Types

Each case should be assigned an NPDWS case type case on the most serious charge ever filed, even if that charge is later dismissed or reduced. The highest charge classification accomplishes two goals. First, it reflects the severity of the original charge. Second, it recognizes that dismissals and charge reductions often reflect defense counsel’s work. For this reason, if prosecutors reduce a charge before defense counsel’s involvement, you could make an exception to the highest charge rule. Otherwise, you should categorize the case by the highest charge the accused faced.