Statistically speaking, Obama still has (by far) the best chance of winning, according to baseball numbers nerd
SMU Journalism Professor Jake Batsell mentions what the FiveThirtyEight blog from The New York Times has to say about the presidential race.
By Bruce Tomaso
Jake Batsell, a friend, former co-worker, and assistant journalism professor at Southern Methodist University, today mentioned on Facebook the FiveThirtyEight blog, from The New York Times.
The blog (named for the total number of votes in the U.S. Electoral College) is the creation of Nate Silver, a former baseball sabermetrician. It uses ”proprietary prediction models” to analyze polling data from across the country and make forecasts about how the election is likely to turn out.
The analysis is purely statistical, not ideological, political, or strategic. It’s not about who should win; it’s about each candidate’s probability of winning, based on what polls say today about voters’ attitudes and the choices they are likely to make on Nov. 6.
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