2009 Archives

Analysis: Recovery timing, jobs key for 2010 US vote

Excerpt

The following is from the June 6, 2009, edition of Forbes.com. Political Science Professor Cal Jillson of SMU's Dedman College provided expertise for this story.

June 8, 2009

By Ed Stoddard

DALLAS (Reuters) — The U.S. recession may be over before the year ends, but the initial stage of recovery could see few new jobs, potentially leaving the 2010 congressional elections wide open.

The midterm elections, which come halfway through a president's term, are often tough for the party occupying the White House. Democrats have big majorities over Republicans in both chambers of Congress.

The November 2010 elections will widely be seen as a referendum on President Barack Obama's economic policies, which include a stimulus package of almost $800 billion and a pledge to save or create 3 million to 4 million jobs.

Obama's popularity remain high five months into his presidency and polls show Americans confident he can fix an economy suffering one of its worst downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Polls also find voters saying an economic recovery will take a number of years.

But finding the jobs Obama has promised may prove tough. Data Friday showed more jobs disappearing because of the slumping economy, although the pace of losses slowed. U.S. employers cut 345,000 jobs last month, the fewest since September and far fewer than forecast. . .

But some analysts say the harshness of this downturn, which began in December 2007, means any relief will produce political capital for Obama's Democrats. Many economists see the recession ending before the end of this year.

"I think the recovery even if it is a jobless recovery will benefit the Democrats in 2010," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

"This is because the fear and panic was so great in 2008 and the first part of 2009 that just the relief that a bottom has been found and a recovery begun should sustain the Democrats through 2010," he said.

Timing is everything.

Jillson said there were many studies of voting behavior that suggested a recovery needed to be under way for at least a few months before a party in power would benefit.

"There is a three- to six-month lag in people's appreciation of a change in the economy. So if the economy is recovering in the second half of 2009, it will be clear in people's minds by November 2010," he said.

There are plenty of examples from recent American political history to support such a view.

The severe recession in 1982 hurt the Republicans in that year's midterm elections.

"But by 1984, (former U.S. President) Ronald Reagan could talk about 'Morning in America,"' Jillson said. Reagan easily won a second term in the White House that year as he rode the recovery wave.

Read the full story.

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