TX House

How gerrymandered are the maps coming out of the TXLege this session?

We report...you decide! See our table below for basic metrics and links to detailed analysis.

PLAN

Submitted By

MM
MM (%ile)
PB
 PB (%ile)
 Favors 2D (#of total)
Ensemble median

3.85 50% 8
41.37% N/A N/A
H2100 (Current map)

2.32
20.72%
6
23.69%
R 148,391 out of 1,000,000
H2317
Gina Castaneda -6.79
0%
-22
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2316
H.B. 1 -5.7
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2315
H.B. 1 -5.7
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2314
REP TINDERHOLT (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2312
REP RODRIGUEZ (D) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2310
7-DIST AMEND -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2308
REP LOZANO (R) -5.73
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2307
REP ROSENTHAL (D) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2306
REP BERNAL (D) -5.75
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2305
REP COLLIER (D) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2302
REP THIERRY (D) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2300
REP PEREZ -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2298
REP HARLESS (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2297
REP ANCHIA (D) -5.77
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2296
REP HULL (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2294
REP WILSON (R) -3.07
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2293
REP VASUT (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2286
REP C TURNER (D) -5.7
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2284
REP GEREN (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2283
REP CAIN (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2281
REP BELL -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2279
REP FRULLO (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2276
REP JETTON (R) -5.73
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2275
REP GEREN (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2267
REP HULL (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2266
REP ROSE (D) -5.77
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2263
REP BECKLEY (D) -5.76
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2262
Jeff Harper 5.62
88.56%
14
90.54%
D 34,182 out of 1,000,000
H2261
REP LOZANO (R) -5.73
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2257
HD90,93,94,95,96,97,99 Amd -5.15
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2255
REP ANCHIA (D) -5.76
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2252
HD 126 -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2251
DALLAS CNTY -5.75
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2250
STWD SUBSTITUTE -0.32
0.56%
-2
0.4%
R 4,821 out of 1,000,000
H2249
REP ANCHIA (D) 6.45
96.3%
10
61.33%
D 27,902 out of 1,000,000
H2248
DALLAS CNTY -5.74
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2247
REP RAMOS (D) -5.66
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2246
REP TINDERHOLT (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2245
HD 5,6,7 -5.75
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2244
REP CAIN (R) -5.67
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2243
REP C TURNER (D) -4.09
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2241
HD 26,76 -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2240
7-DIST AMEND -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2238
REP TINDERHOLT (R) -5.7
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2237
HD90,95,96 AMEND -5.16
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2236
4-DIST AMEND -5.15
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2235
DALLAS CNTY -5.74
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2234
HD 3,15,16,18 -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2232
HD 35 -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2231
HD 74 -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2230
7-DIST AMEND -5.74
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2228
BEXAR CNTY -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2227
26-DIST AMEND -5.31
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2225
HD46,48,49,50,51 AMEND -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2224
REP ANCHIA (D) -3.82
0%
-10
0%
R 1 out of 1,000,000
H2223
HD25,29 AMEND -5.11
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2222
12-DIST AMEND -5.85
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2221
HD 54,55 -5.76
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2218
REP LEACH (R) -5.59
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2217
HD 54,56 -5.76
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2216
HD 54,55 -5.78
0%
-10
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2215
HD 132,149 -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2213
REP FRULLO (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2211
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2209
BEXAR CNTY -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2208
REP FRULLO (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2207
57-DIST AMEND -4.43
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2206
REP THIERRY (D) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2205
REP THEIRRY -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2203
REP THEIRRY -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2200
Statewide House 7.77
99.79%
18
99.04%
D 85 out of 1,000,000
H2199
HD25,29 FLOOR -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2198
REP C TURNER (D) -4.1
0%
-8
0%
R 1 out of 1,000,000
H2197
REP STUCKY (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2196
HD131,137,146,149 AMEND -5.73
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2193
REP CASON (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2192
27-DISTRICT AMND -5.89
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2187
REP S THOMPSON (D) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2186
REP GOLDMAN (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2185
REP THIERRY (D) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2184
HD 47,48 -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2183
Ryan Faidley 14.92
100%
34
100%
D 0 out of 1,000,000
H2182
REP LANDGRAF (R) -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2179
REP GEREN (R) -5.72
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2176
PROPOSAL CSHB1 -5.71
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2175
REP GOLDMAN (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2172
REP MORRISON (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2170
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2169
REP MINJAREZ (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2168
REP JETTON (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2167
REP C TURNER (D) -3.13
0%
-8
0%
R 6 out of 1,000,000
H2166
REP JETTON (R) -4.05
0%
-10
0%
R 1 out of 1,000,000
H2164
REP MORRISON (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2163
REP MORRISON (R) -3.31
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2162
REP LANDGRAF (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2161
REP ANCHIA (D) -3.44
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2159
STATEWIDE CMTE -3.34
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2156
REP MINJAREZ (D) -3.34
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2154
REP ROSE (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2153
REP MORRISON (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2150
REP GUILLEN (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2149
REP GOLDMAN (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2143
REP JETTON (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2142
REP S THOMPSON (D) -3.36
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2140
REP JETTON (R) -3.3
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2139
REP C TURNER (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2138
REP JETTON (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2137
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2135
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -3.32
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2133
REP ANCHIA (D) 6.46
96.32%
12
78.79%
D 19,151 out of 1,000,000
H2132
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2130
REP SCHOFIELD (R) -3.31
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2127
REP COLEMAN (D) -3.14
0%
-8
0%
R 6 out of 1,000,000
H2126
REP C TURNER (D) -3.11
0%
-8
0%
R 6 out of 1,000,000
H2121
REP C TURNER (D) -2.57
0.01%
-6
0.02%
R 77 out of 1,000,000
H2119
REP C TURNER (D) -3.29
0%
-8
0%
R 5 out of 1,000,000
H2118
REP GUILLEN (D) -3.34
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2116
REP MINJAREZ (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2115
REP GOLDMAN (R) -5.7
0%
-12
0%
R 0 out of 1,000,000
H2112
REP JETTON (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2110
REP C TURNER (D) -3.07
0%
-8
0%
R 6 out of 1,000,000
H2109
REP DAVIS (D) -3.23
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2108
REP MOODY (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2107
REP HERNANDEZ (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2104
REP CAMPOS (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2103
REP ROSE (D) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000
H2101
REP HUNTER (R) -3.33
0%
-10
0%
R 2 out of 1,000,000

 

Metrics

MM = mean-median score (expressed as difference in vote share needed for majority)

MM (%ile) = percentile of MM score in ensemble

PB = partisan bias score (expressed as difference in seats won at 50% vote share)

PB (%ile) = percentile of PB score in ensemble. 

Favors = Does the map favor one party relative to another, compared with the ensemble? Possible values: D/R/N (neutral)/NA (not applicable)

2D (# of total) = number of ensemble plans that score worse on both MM and PB, or are equal on PB and worse on MM. We only assessed plans which favored one party over another on both PB and MM; e.g. in contrast S2100 favors Republicans slightly on MM, but is neutral on PB.

For integer-valued quantities such as partisan bias, the percentile value is sensitive to the exact definition. We used an average between the between the "weak" and "strict" definitions (i.e. "less than or equal to" and "strictly less than"), as implemented in the SciPy stats package (stats.percentileofscore(kind='mean') ).

Methodology

We generated an ensemble of 1,000,000 legal TX House plans using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms as implemented in GerryChain (MGGG, 2018). Data was compiled from the Census Bureau (population data and geographic units) and the Texas Legislative Council (election returns from the 2020 Presidential and US Senate races).  Proposed plans were obtained from the Texas Legislative Council. Each plan was assessed on a variety of partisan metrics; the range of observed values in the ensemble is then used to assign a percentile value to each metric as computed for each proposed plan.