Though Bernie Sanders’ campaign took a beating last week – going 0-for-5 against Clinton in Tuesday races – the six states that hold Democratic primaries or caucuses this week are much friendlier territory for the Vermont Senator, though a rally might come too late to matter.
“Sanders could pull a string of upsets, but I would consider it to be a dead-cat bounce,” Wilson says “There could be a little burst of success because of which states are voting this week – especially caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska and Washington – but he doesn’t have any chance to win the nomination.”
The Republican race still has three candidates in the running – Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Donald Trump – but the only name that matters, says Wilson, is Trump’s.
“The election has been moving in the direction of a referendum on Trump,” Wilson says. “But we’re not purely to that point yet because Kasich wants to stick around, and that’s important because exit polls in Missouri and North Carolina – states that went to Trump last week – show Cruz would have won if it had been a straight up Trump vs. Cruz ballot.”
“Cruz still isn’t getting the straight-up shot he’d liked, and that matters because a lot of upcoming states are winner-take-all, and that gives Trump the opportunity to win with 40% of the vote,” Wilson adds. “In that sense, Kasich’s continued presence is still a boon to Trump.”
Wilson is an SMU associate professor of Political Science. He can discuss:
- religion and politics
- political psychology
- voting behavior of religious voters
- public opinion and politics