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Expert: U.S. Won't Rebound to Pre-Recession Numbers until 2025


The following ran in the Nov. 28, 2012, edition of the Marietta Daily Journal. SMU's Cox School of Business Dean Albert Niemi Jr., provided expertise for this story.

November 30, 2012

GALLERIA — If the economy continues to recover at current rates, the country will not fully rebound to pre-recession numbers until 2025, predicts economist Albert W. Niemi Jr., dean of the Edwin L. Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University.

“The news is not great,” Niemi told the more than 500 people who came to the Cobb Performing Arts Centre on Tuesday to hear his economic forecast. The annual breakfast event, now in its 20th year, is conducted by the Bank of North Georgia.

“It is unprecedented how sluggish this recovery has been,” Niemi said. He predicts that growth in gross domestic product will slip from 2 to 1.9 percent in 2013, far from the 4 percent number it should be at this point of the recovery based on historical economic trends.

Niemi also believes the unemployment rate will fall from this year’s average of 8.2 to 7.9 percent next year. He said that while the unemployment rate is currently 7.9 percent, the true rate is just below 15 percent when accounting for the underemployed.

He warned that if the “Bush tax cuts” expire, it would be “a job killer” and will “hammer the middle class.”

“The biggest thing holding this economy back is uncertainty,” Niemi said.

He said changes to health care laws, which will not be fully implemented until 2014, are adding to the uncertainty.

“A lot of businesses are holding back until they know the costs,” he said.

The former University of Georgia professor did impart a small degree of optimism for Georgia.

Niemi predicts most of the nation’s growth will occur in the Sun Belt and that metro Atlanta will fare far better than the rest of the nation because of its accessibility and quality of life....

Read more: The Marietta Daily Journal - Expert U S won’t rebound from pre recession numbers until 2025